After a brief hiatus from posting, I am just now getting back into the swing of things. On a personal note, my wife and I moved the family cross country from Texas to Idaho this past month, and that is an adventure I hope to never again repeat! But life is settling down a bit now . . .
The bond market is a good place to dust off the charts. I closely follow the iShares 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF, $TLT, and my analysis continues to confirm the the correct application of the Fibonacci levels should begin with the secondary high from the 2016 peak, not the primary high. I share some prior thoughts here.
In doing so, we see $TLT honoring multiple Fibonacci levels of support and resistance throughout the last three years.
The breakout from the secondary high occurred in August and failed to close above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. It has since had an A-B-C correction and is retesting the break of that secondary high, which also coincides with rising channel support. The move from here will dictate the direction for the next few weeks/month. If support does not hold we should expect a retest of 134.50. Otherwise, a move back towards 150 seems very likely. My bias is to the bullish side.
A more granular look on the daily chart from the September high shows a measured move higher, with price retracing to the .618 level, pulling back to .382, pushing higher to .786, and now sitting at .236 (higher low from the September bottom).
Lastly, for anyone interested in learning more about how to apply Fibonacci levels, please join me this Sunday, October 13th, 2019 at 6pm EST for a webinar with my friends at Trendspider. A link to the webinar is here.
