The fear throughout the summer has been that a frothy equity market (up double digits YTD), a Federal Reserve that has been reluctant to aggressively lower rates, trade wars with China and other countries, an inverted yield curve, and the cusp of a Presidential election would all serve to dampen the economic outlook and give...Read More
For nine months, oil has formed a series of two lower highs and one higher low, coiling into the tip of a large symmetrical triangle. I am paying closing attention to the 54.50 level, where it looks to test rising trend line support and an area with significant market memory.Read More
The oil price has been in a precipitous decline since falling from $66+ in April to a recent low this morning of $52.22, from where it has since rallied strongly. If this low holds, it will form the channel depicted above. This area seems like a nice risk-reward setup for a possible move back to...Read More
The ratio has been in a wide ranging downtrend channel for a decade, with a countertrend move beginning in early 2016. That move broke its uptrend channel in December, pulled back to retest prior channel support, and has since broken down again on recent trading action. This breakdown is bearish for the ratio, which translates...Read More
I have updated the trend channel (green) from the original post with a new channel (blue) that has formed as a result of last week's break. I closed my long positions on the break of the channel. The move also violated the 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average in overnight trading. Read More
Despite the fierce drop in oil last Friday, I am still of the opinion that the trend remains up. As long as the oil price remains above $59, I would argue that bulls are in charge. The chart above depicts the trend channel that oil has been trading in since breaking out from the lows.Read More
Followers on Twitter know that I have been bullish oil since the breakthrough at the 38.2% Fib retracement and the formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern.Read More
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