S&P500 Pushes Past 3000. Next up 3190?

The S&P500 finally worked its way back above 3000 today, and in the process has cast into question the likelihood of a second wave down. In the sight of all doubters, price has pushed through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2920 measured from the February highs to the March lows. Many (myself included) considered this zone to be a likely area of resistance, commencing another leg down as the economy digests the epic damage done to commerce over the last three months. As a last gasp, bears are hoping that the 200 day moving average (where priced closed today) brings out the sellers.

However, since mid-April, equities have been consolidating, and today’s breakout above the rectangular base would suggest a measured move towards the 3190-3210 region if price holds above 2970. This is the bullish case. See 4h chart below.

 

 

The Fear/Greed index is split right down the middle at ~50/50. The market is looking for a sense of direction. Another collapse, or a short squeeze higher?