Mark Yusko at SIC 2019
The fourth day of SIC 2019 featured a rapid fire presentation from Mark Yusko, who is bullish bitcoin, bullish commodities, bullish emerging markets, and bearish US equities. Bill White presented his concerns about the next crisis and the ability of central banks to manage it. Carmen Reinhart believes there will be a slowdown but not a recession through the end of the year. Howard Marks explained his strategy of using probabilities and odds to create better risk/reward in his portfolio.
I’ve seen Mark Yusko present half a dozen times now. I appreciate Yusko’s willingness to take strong contrarian positions publicly, and sometimes being publicly wrong. In my view, the process is more important than the outcome, because we all know that if you get the asymmetry correct and capture the long tail, you can be wrong half the time (or more) and still win handily in the long run. Studying his process is the benefit of his presentations, even if one’s conclusions are different. I also like that he interweaves technical analysis within the framework of his global macro theses.
My key takeaway from the 4-day event was the consensus view – held by all – to be long bonds of various duration and in various jurisdictions. The conference was predominantly bearish which has been a departure from prior conferences.
Flawed Policies Prior to Financial Crisis
Flawed Policies After Financial Crisis
A further stage in the crisis seems inevitable
We are ill prepared to respond
Instead they will likely double down
Leading to a less unhappy outcome
A more unhappy outcome