SIC 2019: Day 1 Recap

Liz Ann Sonders

Liz Ann Sonders Speaking at SIC 2019

The opening night of SIC2019 featured only one guest: Charles Schwab’s Chief Investment Strategist, Liz Ann Sonders. Here are my notes from her conversation with Mauldin Economics Editor, Ed D’Agostino:

  • Be prepared, we are getting late in this cycle.
  • Trade likely to be the needle mover and days like today are indicative of how sensitive the market is.
  • Contrarian view: inflation is something to ponder, and often lags through system.
  • It wouldn’t be a stretch to have a recession sooner than people think. The next recession is likely to be garden variety, not an epic bust.
  • Wage growth averages are distorted by the types of new jobs (e.g. wage growth grew through Great Recession via layoffs of low wage earners.)
  • The US debt and deficit (often conflated) are the most common questions among Charles Schwab retail clients, who have $3.6T in assets invested at Charles Schwab.
  • When looking at key indicators, *better or worse* is more important than *good or bad*. The trend is key. The market is great at adapting to trends.
  • Excess optimism runs out in this market environment more quickly than the ’90s. We saw the peril last year when the dollar strengthened beyond consensus.
  • We are neutral US and overweight large caps within it. We are neutral emerging markets and concerned about dollar strength and dollar funding.
 
About the author

I am the founder of fibonacci.com and an avid trader. I am also the co-founder of Texas Precious Metals, a top US precious metals company. In 2006 I was a contestant on The Apprentice with future president, Donald Trump. I live in Texas with my wife and five children, where I spend my time dodging snakes, changing diapers, and charting.

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