The opening night of SIC2019 featured only one guest: Charles Schwab’s Chief Investment Strategist, Liz Ann Sonders. Here are my notes from her conversation with Mauldin Economics Editor, Ed D’Agostino:
Be prepared, we are getting late in this cycle.
Trade likely to be the needle mover and days like today are indicative of how sensitive the market is.
Contrarian view: inflation is something to ponder, and often lags through system.
It wouldn’t be a stretch to have a recession sooner than people think. The next recession is likely to be garden variety, not an epic bust.
Wage growth averages are distorted by the types of new jobs (e.g. wage growth grew through Great Recession via layoffs of low wage earners.)
The US debt and deficit (often conflated) are the most common questions among Charles Schwab retail clients, who have $3.6T in assets invested at Charles Schwab.
When looking at key indicators, *better or worse* is more important than *good or bad*. The trend is key. The market is great at adapting to trends.
Excess optimism runs out in this market environment more quickly than the ’90s. We saw the peril last year when the dollar strengthened beyond consensus.
We are neutral US and overweight large caps within it. We are neutral emerging markets and concerned about dollar strength and dollar funding.
I am the founder of fibonacci.com and an avid trader. I am also the co-founder of Texas Precious Metals, a top US precious metals company. In 2006 I was a contestant on The Apprentice with future president, Donald Trump. I live in Coeur D'Alene, Idaho, with my wife and five children, where I spend my time hiking, charting, and changing diapers.