I like to chart the ratio of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) vs. iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG). Generally speaking, when the ratio is declining (HYG outperforming TLT), then sentiment is risk on, as investors seek risk for greater return. When the ratio is ascending (TLT outperforming HYG), then sentiment...Read More
This morning, the dollar spiked up to 98.20, its second recent attempt to definitively break above resistance at the 98 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has yet to confirm this move. I would like to see the RSI break above the downward trend line when prices get updated on the close.Read More
Perhaps one of the more surprising charts of the last few years has been that of the CBOE gold volatility index. This morning gold vol fell to 8.75, almost half that of the S&P500. Much to the chagrin of precious metals dealers who make a living off of transactional activity, both the buy and sell...Read More
The recent thrust has brought out the bulls once again, and while the overbought conditions on the RSI are bullish over the medium to long term, in the short term I think the price is a little stretched. The 50 day moving average is also presently around the $5800 level, which further increases the probability...Read More
The fourth day of SIC 2019 featured a rapid fire presentation from Mark Yusko, who is bullish bitcoin, bullish commodities, bullish emerging markets, and bearish US equities. Bill White presented his concerns about the next crisis and the ability of central banks to manage it. Carmen Reinhart believes there will be a slowdown but not...Read More
The third day of SIC 2019 featured a magnificent presentation from Grant Williams covering his bearish views of the Australian housing market and the economy at-large, the bearish macro views of Felix Zulauf, geopolitical opinions from George Friedman, a focus on (housing) demographics from a panel of real estate experts and (political) demographics from the...Read More
The second day of SIC 2019 featured a range of opinions on the markets from extremely bearish (David Rosenberg) to modestly bullish (Doubline's) Jeffrey Sherman. Specific trade recommendation included long treasuries (Rosenberg) and long-dated US bonds (Lacy Hunt). Louis Gave and Jeffrey Sherman were both bearish the dollar, with the former concerned about inflation and...Read More
The opening night of SIC2019 featured only one guest: Charles Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist, Liz Ann Sonders. Here are my notes from her conversation with Mauldin Economics Editor Ed D'Agostino.Read More
This week I will be attending John Mauldin's SIC 2019 in Dallas. This will be my sixth year attending, and the conference never fails to disappoint. I will be live tweeting via my Twitter account, @FibLines, so be sure to follow. I will also post a daily recap on this site.Read More
Today, the Russell gapped down *again* and this time blew through all support. The market is choppy, and without any clear sense of trend, I would be very hesitant to take a bullish or a bearish stance. Better to wait it out and let the market choose the direction.Read More
