The long term daily chart above highlights two potential falling (slightly) resistance lines from the peaks of the last six years. These lines are represented in black and red. Of particular note is how gold has reacted to these lines in the last few weeks - honoring both to the tick. This trading action is...Read More

Here is a quick snapshot of the metals sector. The silver chart above is constructive, as silver broke out of a falling wedge and confirmed the bullish action in gold. It also successfully hit its initial target of $15.15-$15.20.Read More

The oil price has been in a precipitous decline since falling from $66+ in April to a recent low this morning of $52.22, from where it has since rallied strongly. If this low holds, it will form the channel depicted above. This area seems like a nice risk-reward setup for a possible move back to...Read More

The bond market has been on fire of late with two rate cuts now being priced into the market in 2019. While equities and energy have reacted harshly on expectations of slowing growth, the US dollar and gold, in particular, have been surprisingly mired in a low volatility coil.Read More

The ratio has been in a wide ranging downtrend channel for a decade, with a countertrend move beginning in early 2016. That move broke its uptrend channel in December, pulled back to retest prior channel support, and has since broken down again on recent trading action. This breakdown is bearish for the ratio, which translates...Read More

The primary, long term trend in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) remains up. Channel support held at the December lows and has since rebounded strongly on expectations for lower rates (Fed Funds Futures are pricing in an 80% probability of a rate cuts by December 2019). This is bullish for bond prices.Read More

I like to chart the ratio of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) vs. iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG). Generally speaking, when the ratio is declining (HYG outperforming TLT), then sentiment is risk on, as investors seek risk for greater return. When the ratio is ascending (TLT outperforming HYG), then sentiment...Read More

This morning, the dollar spiked up to 98.20, its second recent attempt to definitively break above resistance at the 98 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has yet to confirm this move. I would like to see the RSI break above the downward trend line when prices get updated on the close.Read More

Perhaps one of the more surprising charts of the last few years has been that of the CBOE gold volatility index. This morning gold vol fell to 8.75, almost half that of the S&P500. Much to the chagrin of precious metals dealers who make a living off of transactional activity, both the buy and sell...Read More

The recent thrust has brought out the bulls once again, and while the overbought conditions on the RSI are bullish over the medium to long term, in the short term I think the price is a little stretched. The 50 day moving average is also presently around the $5800 level, which further increases the probability...Read More