Research

Gold Chart
22
Aug

Expecting a Pullback in Gold

Gold has been on an epic run since early May, breaking out of a six-year base and launching almost $300 per ounce in the span of three months. Momentum favors the bulls, and the technicals look very strong over the long term. The backdrop of lower global yields and potential monetary stimulus are key fundamental...
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TLT-HYG Ratio
20
Aug

$TLT/$HYG Ratio Poised for All-time Highs?

One of my favorite charts is the ratio of the 20-Year Bond ETF, $TLT, to the High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, $HYG. The chart communicates investor risk appetite between low risk, lower yielding US bonds and high risk, higher yielding corporate bonds.
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Steel
25
Jul

$HRC Steel Continues Downward Trajectory

The chart of steel (US Midwest Domestic Hot-rolled Coil Steel) is one of the cleaner technical charts in my queue . . . and it is a disaster zone. I’m looking at the front month weekly chart as a proxy for steel prices. Some key features of the chart:
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24
Jul

$PL Platinum Reversing Against Gold

Platinum has underperformed gold since the ratio double bottomed in 2014. This has been especially frustrating for bulls as platinum's cousin in the PGM group - palladium - has burst to all-time highs through the same period.
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Crude Oil
18
Jul

$CL Crude Oil Looking to Test Key 54.50 Level

For nine months, oil has formed a series of two lower highs and one higher low, coiling into the tip of a large symmetrical triangle. I am paying closing attention to the 54.50 level, where it looks to test rising trend line support and an area with significant market memory.
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Gold Silver Ratio
17
Jul

Gold/Silver Ratio Signaling Key Reversal?

As we have discussed at length in previous posts, the story this summer has been gold breaking out of a six-year base at $1365 and finally showing signs of strength after may false starts. What has made many gold bulls lingering skeptics has been the performance of silver, which is a smaller market with higher...
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05
Jul

$DXY US Dollar Pushes Back Into Wedge; Metals Sell Off

The robust jobs report (224,000 new jobs vs. 160,000 projected) immediately changed the narrative of forthcoming Fed rate cuts, which had been the wind beneath the sales of the recent bull action in gold and bonds, and the weight pushing the dollar lower.
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28
Jun

$PAAS Pan American Silver Looking to Break Through

One of the disappointments in silver's recent move higher has been the lack of follow through from mining stocks, with Pan American Silver being a premier example. This past week has seen Pan American attempting to close that gap.
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26
Jun

Bitcoin Going Parabolic Once Again?

As of the writing of this post, bitcoin is now at $13,750. I see no technical areas of resistance anywhere on the chart at this point. This is now a parabolic advance with a high rate of change on the Y axis (price) over a small window of time on the X axis.
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20
Jun

Gold Breaks Through After 6 Years; Silver, Miners Confirming

The long suffering (and diminishing) army of gold bugs, distraught over gold's underperformance in the wake of asset inflation, government spending, and historically low (sometimes negative) interest rates over the last seven years, received a resounding message of hope yesterday when gold broke through long term resistance to top tick at 1397.70.
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