Fixed Income

03
Mar

The Market Crash of 2020: Where Do We Go From Here?

The last two weeks have been extremely volatile in the markets, and for the first time in a long time my friends and family have called to inquire about “what is going on in the markets?”
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US Housing
30
Jan

[VIDEO] US Housing Market Update – Jan 30th, 2020

In this video, I review key technicals in the US housing market, specifically the real estate ETF REZ, home construction ETF ITB, mortgage rates and lumber.
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USD Jan 2020
08
Jan

[VIDEO] Market Update – Gold, Oil, Equities, Bonds, and USD – Jan 08, 2020

I made a brief video this evening to quickly run through some key charts I'm following and where I see the big picture trends.
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17
Oct

Now Available: Fibonacci Webinar

If you missed the free Fibonacci Webinar last Sunday, October 13th, 2019 with my friends at Trendspider, a link to the recording is here.
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12
Oct

Free Fibonacci Webinar: Sunday, October 13th, 6pm EST

Anyone interested in learning more about applying Fibonacci levels in technical trading, please join me this Sunday, October 13th, 2019 at 6pm EST for a webinar with my friends at Trendspider. A link to the webinar is here.
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11
Oct

$TLT Retesting Breakout and Trend Line

The breakout from the secondary high occurred in August and failed to close above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. It has since had an A-B-C correction and is retesting the break of that secondary high, which also coincides with rising channel support. The move from here will dictate the direction for the next few weeks/month.
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gold ands bonds
29
Aug

Gold and Bonds Highly Correlated

Since 2015, the gold market and bond market (I use the $TLT 20-Year Bond ETF as a proxy for bond market performance) has been highly correlated. Both asset classes are viewed as a risk-off flight to safety. While past performance does not predict future performance, it is worth noting that many are viewing the bond...
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TLT-HYG Ratio
20
Aug

$TLT/$HYG Ratio Poised for All-time Highs?

One of my favorite charts is the ratio of the 20-Year Bond ETF, $TLT, to the High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, $HYG. The chart communicates investor risk appetite between low risk, lower yielding US bonds and high risk, higher yielding corporate bonds.
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28
May

A Look at the $TLT Chart

The primary, long term trend in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) remains up. Channel support held at the December lows and has since rebounded strongly on expectations for lower rates (Fed Funds Futures are pricing in an 80% probability of a rate cuts by December 2019). This is bullish for bond prices.
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TLT v HYG
25
May

Chart of the Week: $TLT / $HYG Ratio Breaking Out

I like to chart the ratio of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) vs. iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG). Generally speaking, when the ratio is declining (HYG outperforming TLT), then sentiment is risk on, as investors seek risk for greater return. When the ratio is ascending (TLT outperforming HYG), then sentiment...
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