Commodities

19
May

Gold Breaking Out?

We have been watching falling trend channel resistance on gold for the past six months, and after the double bottom in March around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, gold has steadily climbed . . .
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04
Mar

Gold Hitting Multiple Support Levels

For the past month gold has been trading in a range between 1720 and 1780, struggling to make the breakout leap it seemed to promise the first week of the year. Gnawing at bulls is the fact that every other commodity, like copper, gold, zinc, and others, have exploded higher while gold seems stuck on...
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24
Jan

Metals Caught in the Middle

Metals bulls have been frustrated with repeated attempts to break out of a multi-month bull flag/falling channel. At the turn of the new year, with the presidential election all but behind the country, and with calls for more money-printing and ongoing stimulus, it seemed a given that – like the base metals and energy -...
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21
Dec

Silver Breaking Out

The month of November was a bit of a roller coaster for metals bulls, as price appeared to breakout, only to reverse on vaccine news and become extremely oversold by mid-December.
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23
Nov

Metals: What Happened?

In my last post, I commented on the strong breakouts in metals out of bull wedge consolidations. These breakouts were ultimately short-lived and quickly reversed on vaccine news, washing out swing longs and once again pushing price lower to another test of falling resistance.
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06
Nov

The Election, Metals, and Uncertainty

In my last piece, I noted that precious metals were trending up, and the US Dollar was trending down. Yesterday’s price action confirmed that, following a multi-week consolidation period, these trends have resumed.
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14
Oct

An Analysis of Trends in USD, S&P500, and Gold

On the topic of future inflationary or deflationary expectations, there are strong fundamental arguments on both sides. In my simple interpretation, the deflationary camp (dollar bulls) make the case that the economy remains fractured, entire industries are being undermined by the pandemic, there is high unemployment, the personal savings rate is up, the stock market...
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GOLD 10-2-20
02
Oct

Is the Near Term Bottom In for Metals?

The price coiling I highlighted in gold in my last post failed to the downside, which I mentioned was a possibility. There were two key levels, the 1865-1880 band, and then 1800, which would have retested the entire move. Buyers came in strong at 1865 and price held, right at the 100 day moving average.
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GOLD-9-22-20
22
Sep

UPDATE: Gold Sitting at Equilibrium

Gold broke down from its pennant yesterday and hit first support at $1880. Price remains in a bull flag, but a break below $1875 should see a quick drop to $1800, which would be a backtest of the entire breakout.
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18
Sep

Gold Sitting at Equilibrium

A closeup of the gold chart shows a narrowing and tightly wound price coil of lower highs and higher lows. This narrowing trading range has formed a symmetrical triangle (pennant formation) that probabilistically favors a move in the direction of the underlying trend (60/40).
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