Category

Commodities
Gold Volatility
21
May

Gold Volatility at Historic Lows

Perhaps one of the more surprising charts of the last few years has been that of the CBOE gold volatility index. This morning gold vol fell to 8.75, almost half that of the S&P500. Much to the chagrin of precious metals dealers who make a living off of transactional activity, both the buy and sell...
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Oil
07
May

$WTI $CL Oil Update: Channel Breakdown

I have updated the trend channel (green) from the original post with a new channel (blue) that has formed as a result of last week's break. I closed my long positions on the break of the channel. The move also violated the 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average in overnight trading. 
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Silver
07
May

Silver Pressing Up Against Triple Resistance

Silver has been consolidating into a bullish falling wedge, but is now pressing up against falling channel resistance, horizontal resistance (prior support) and the 200-day moving average. This triple resistance is a formidable Maginot line.
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Oil Chart
29
Apr

$WTI $CL Oil Bulls Still in Control

Despite the fierce drop in oil last Friday, I am still of the opinion that the trend remains up. As long as the oil price remains above $59, I would argue that bulls are in charge. The chart above depicts the trend channel that oil has been trading in since breaking out from the lows.
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Lumber Futures
26
Apr

Lumber Futures Testing Key Area of Support

The precipitous decline in lumber prices from the 2018 peak presaged the huge decline in equities in the fourth quarter, while the subsequent rebound also foreshadowed the rebound in equities at the beginning of this year. Therefore, it is understandable why lumber's fall year-to-date has many concerned that equities, which have consistently lagged lumber prices,...
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SP500 Divided by Copper
23
Apr

S&P500 vs. Copper Ratio Breaking Out

The S&P500 is trading at all-time highs relative to commodities. The commodities sector is therefore an attractive area to investigate for relative value and the potential for outperformance versus equities. In my research, the most compelling chart is the ratio of the S&P 500 to copper (a.k.a "Doctor Copper").
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11
Apr

Platinum Pushing Up Against Resistance at $917; Breakout or Breakdown?

The recent $100 move in the Platinum price from the beginning of March has brought out the bulls on social media. Platinum futures tipped right above the $921 level, got swiftly rejected, and rebounded to close today around $911.
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Crude Oil
10
Apr

$CL Crude Oil Remains Bullish, but Expect a Pullback

Followers on Twitter know that I have been bullish oil since the breakthrough at the 38.2% Fib retracement and the formation of an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
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