Research

Oil-gold ratio
10
Sep

Oil/Gold Ratio At Key Support

The fear throughout the summer has been that a frothy equity market (up double digits YTD), a Federal Reserve that has been reluctant to aggressively lower rates, trade wars with China and other countries, an inverted yield curve, and the cusp of a Presidential election would all serve to dampen the economic outlook and give...
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gold ands bonds
29
Aug

Gold and Bonds Highly Correlated

Since 2015, the gold market and bond market (I use the $TLT 20-Year Bond ETF as a proxy for bond market performance) has been highly correlated. Both asset classes are viewed as a risk-off flight to safety. While past performance does not predict future performance, it is worth noting that many are viewing the bond...
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natural gas
23
Aug

$NG Natural Gas Continuing Downward Trend

The long term log chart of natural gas (weekly) should give pause to any remaining bulls expecting an inflation-fueled price rise in the coming months. Since 2008, the price of natural gas has been locked in a consistent pattern of lower highs (3) and lower lows (3).
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Gold Chart
22
Aug

Expecting a Pullback in Gold

Gold has been on an epic run since early May, breaking out of a six-year base and launching almost $300 per ounce in the span of three months. Momentum favors the bulls, and the technicals look very strong over the long term. The backdrop of lower global yields and potential monetary stimulus are key fundamental...
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TLT-HYG Ratio
20
Aug

$TLT/$HYG Ratio Poised for All-time Highs?

One of my favorite charts is the ratio of the 20-Year Bond ETF, $TLT, to the High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, $HYG. The chart communicates investor risk appetite between low risk, lower yielding US bonds and high risk, higher yielding corporate bonds.
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Steel
25
Jul

$HRC Steel Continues Downward Trajectory

The chart of steel (US Midwest Domestic Hot-rolled Coil Steel) is one of the cleaner technical charts in my queue . . . and it is a disaster zone. I’m looking at the front month weekly chart as a proxy for steel prices. Some key features of the chart:
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24
Jul

$PL Platinum Reversing Against Gold

Platinum has underperformed gold since the ratio double bottomed in 2014. This has been especially frustrating for bulls as platinum's cousin in the PGM group - palladium - has burst to all-time highs through the same period.
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Crude Oil
18
Jul

$CL Crude Oil Looking to Test Key 54.50 Level

For nine months, oil has formed a series of two lower highs and one higher low, coiling into the tip of a large symmetrical triangle. I am paying closing attention to the 54.50 level, where it looks to test rising trend line support and an area with significant market memory.
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Gold Silver Ratio
17
Jul

Gold/Silver Ratio Signaling Key Reversal?

As we have discussed at length in previous posts, the story this summer has been gold breaking out of a six-year base at $1365 and finally showing signs of strength after may false starts. What has made many gold bulls lingering skeptics has been the performance of silver, which is a smaller market with higher...
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05
Jul

$DXY US Dollar Pushes Back Into Wedge; Metals Sell Off

The robust jobs report (224,000 new jobs vs. 160,000 projected) immediately changed the narrative of forthcoming Fed rate cuts, which had been the wind beneath the sales of the recent bull action in gold and bonds, and the weight pushing the dollar lower.
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