Research

14
Oct

An Analysis of Trends in USD, S&P500, and Gold

On the topic of future inflationary or deflationary expectations, there are strong fundamental arguments on both sides. In my simple interpretation, the deflationary camp (dollar bulls) make the case that the economy remains fractured, entire industries are being undermined by the pandemic, there is high unemployment, the personal savings rate is up, the stock market...
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GOLD 10-2-20
02
Oct

Is the Near Term Bottom In for Metals?

The price coiling I highlighted in gold in my last post failed to the downside, which I mentioned was a possibility. There were two key levels, the 1865-1880 band, and then 1800, which would have retested the entire move. Buyers came in strong at 1865 and price held, right at the 100 day moving average.
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GOLD-9-22-20
22
Sep

UPDATE: Gold Sitting at Equilibrium

Gold broke down from its pennant yesterday and hit first support at $1880. Price remains in a bull flag, but a break below $1875 should see a quick drop to $1800, which would be a backtest of the entire breakout.
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18
Sep

Gold Sitting at Equilibrium

A closeup of the gold chart shows a narrowing and tightly wound price coil of lower highs and higher lows. This narrowing trading range has formed a symmetrical triangle (pennant formation) that probabilistically favors a move in the direction of the underlying trend (60/40).
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GOLD-8-19
19
Aug

Inflationary Winds Blowing Across Assets

In a stark reversal from the collapse of nearly every market just six months ago, the winds of inflation have pushed the sails of those same markets back to new (or near) all-time highs.
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GOLD 4HR CHART
03
Aug

Gold, Silver, USD: Where to Next?

The precious metals market is very clearly in a secular uptrend and prices look poised for further significant upside into the end of the year.
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Silver
08
Jul

Big Breakouts Across Metals Complex: Gold, Silver, Miners

Precious metals prices broke out this morning above key resistance levels in the mining sector as well as the underlying futures market for the raw metal.
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10
Jun

Silver Setting Up for Third Push to $18.90

Silver has been the shining star in the metals complex since the March low of $11.60, outperforming all other metals on its run to $18.90/oz.
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26
May

S&P500 Pushes Past 3000. Next up 3190?

The S&P500 finally worked its way back above 3000 today, and in the process has cast into question the likelihood of a second wave down. In the sight of all doubters, price has pushed through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2920 measured from the February highs to the March lows.
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Gold Daily Chart
06
May

Gold and Silver Coiling for a Move

I want to review price action in gold. Here is the long term, 40-year semi-log chart of gold monthly futures. I have drawn my fibonacci levels from the secondary high in 1980 ($720) to the bottom in 2001 ($250). The story is as follows:
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