Category

Research
USD 2019
23
May

$DXY Dollar Making Another Attempt to Breakout

This morning, the dollar spiked up to 98.20, its second recent attempt to definitively break above resistance at the 98 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has yet to confirm this move. I would like to see the RSI break above the downward trend line when prices get updated on the close.
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Gold Volatility
21
May

Gold Volatility at Historic Lows

Perhaps one of the more surprising charts of the last few years has been that of the CBOE gold volatility index. This morning gold vol fell to 8.75, almost half that of the S&P500. Much to the chagrin of precious metals dealers who make a living off of transactional activity, both the buy and sell...
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Bitcoin
20
May

$BTC: Straight Up or Pull Back?

The recent thrust has brought out the bulls once again, and while the overbought conditions on the RSI are bullish over the medium to long term, in the short term I think the price is a little stretched. The 50 day moving average is also presently around the $5800 level, which further increases the probability...
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Mark Yusko
16
May

SIC 2019: Day 4 Recap

The fourth day of SIC 2019 featured a rapid fire presentation from Mark Yusko, who is bullish bitcoin, bullish commodities, bullish emerging markets, and bearish US equities. Bill White presented his concerns about the next crisis and the ability of central banks to manage it. Carmen Reinhart believes there will be a slowdown but not...
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John Burns
15
May

SIC 2019: Day 3 Recap

The third day of SIC 2019 featured a magnificent presentation from Grant Williams covering his bearish views of the Australian housing market and the economy at-large, the bearish macro views of Felix Zulauf, geopolitical opinions from George Friedman, a focus on (housing) demographics from a panel of real estate experts and (political) demographics from the...
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SIC 2019
14
May

SIC 2019: Day 2 Recap

The second day of SIC 2019 featured a range of opinions on the markets from extremely bearish (David Rosenberg) to modestly bullish (Doubline's) Jeffrey Sherman. Specific trade recommendation included long treasuries (Rosenberg) and long-dated US bonds (Lacy Hunt). Louis Gave and Jeffrey Sherman were both bearish the dollar, with the former concerned about inflation and...
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Liz Ann Sonders
13
May

SIC 2019: Day 1 Recap

The opening night of SIC2019 featured only one guest: Charles Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist, Liz Ann Sonders. Here are my notes from her conversation with Mauldin Economics Editor Ed D'Agostino.
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Niall Ferguson
13
May

SIC 2019: Live Updates this Week

This week I will be attending John Mauldin's SIC 2019 in Dallas. This will be my sixth year attending, and the conference never fails to disappoint. I will be live tweeting via my Twitter account, @FibLines, so be sure to follow. I will also post a daily recap on this site.
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IWM
13
May

UPDATE: $IWM Russell 2000 Gaps Down Through Support Levels

Today, the Russell gapped down *again* and this time blew through all support. The market is choppy, and without any clear sense of trend, I would be very hesitant to take a bullish or a bearish stance. Better to wait it out and let the market choose the direction.
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IWM 5-09-19
09
May

$IWM Russell 2000 Resting on Heavy Support

Today, IWM gapped down at the open right at 155.52, and pin-pricked swiftly and deeply right through all three levels of support - an alignment of the 50-day moving average, 200-day moving average, and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement - before recovering and closing green on the day (see chart at the very top). The price action...
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