The primary, long term trend in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) remains up. Channel support held at the December lows and has since rebounded strongly on expectations for lower rates (Fed Funds Futures are pricing in an 80% probability of a rate cuts by December 2019). This is bullish for bond prices.
In the short term, prices are rising in a steep ascending triangle, which should fail between $128.50-$130 in the near term, right at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent high-low cycle. The divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports this view.
Long term, it is very possible prices could balloon to $157 at the top of this channel at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
