DAILY CHARTS

Steel

$HRC Steel Continues Downward Trajectory

The chart of steel (US Midwest Domestic Hot-rolled Coil Steel) is one of the cleaner technical charts in my queue . . . and it is a disaster zone. I’m looking at the front month weekly chart as a proxy for steel prices. Some key features of the chart:
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$PL Platinum Reversing Against Gold

Platinum has underperformed gold since the ratio double bottomed in 2014. This has been especially frustrating for bulls as platinum's cousin in the PGM group - palladium - has burst to all-time highs through the same period.
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Crude Oil

$CL Crude Oil Looking to Test Key 54.50 Level

For nine months, oil has formed a series of two lower highs and one higher low, coiling into the tip of a large symmetrical triangle. I am paying closing attention to the 54.50 level, where it looks to test rising trend line support and an area with significant market memory.
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Gold Silver Ratio

Gold/Silver Ratio Signaling Key Reversal?

As we have discussed at length in previous posts, the story this summer has been gold breaking out of a six-year base at $1365 and finally showing signs of strength after may false starts. What has made many gold bulls lingering skeptics has been the performance of silver, which is a smaller market with higher...
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$DXY US Dollar Pushes Back Into Wedge; Metals Sell Off

The robust jobs report (224,000 new jobs vs. 160,000 projected) immediately changed the narrative of forthcoming Fed rate cuts, which had been the wind beneath the sales of the recent bull action in gold and bonds, and the weight pushing the dollar lower.
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$PAAS Pan American Silver Looking to Break Through

One of the disappointments in silver's recent move higher has been the lack of follow through from mining stocks, with Pan American Silver being a premier example. This past week has seen Pan American attempting to close that gap.
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SP500 Fibonacci

Fibonacci Retracements

The use of Fibonacci levels in trading is based on the principle that the ratios of the Fibonacci sequence tend to coincide with key support and resistance zones, often signaling key pivot areas of price movement. 

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SP500 Fibonacci

FIBONACCI EXTENSIONS

While Fibonacci retracements examine price action following a breakdown from the pivot cycle highs, Fibonacci extensions establish target levels following a breakout from pivot cycle highs.

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Fibonacci Time Zones

FIBONACCI TIME ZONES & RATIOS

A similar tool, Fibonacci Time Ratios, applies the same technique across the x-axis to measure activity across time, but instead of producing bands related to a fixed period, a Fibonacci Time Ratio produces vertical bands corresponding to Fibonacci Ratios.

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Rising Fibonacci Fan

FIBONACCI FANS & ARCS

While Fibonacci retracements and extensions measure changes in price (y-axis, horizontal bands), and Fibonacci time zones and ratios measure changes in time (x-axis, vertical bands), Fibonacci fans measure changes in both time and price.

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What is Fibonacci?

Fibonacci refers to the sequence of numbers made famous by thirteenth-century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, who presented and explained the solution to an algebraic math problem in his book Liber Abaci (1228). The Fibonacci sequence and the ratios of its sequential numbers have been discovered to be pervasive throughout nature, art, music, biology, and other disciplines, and they form the foundation for Fibonacci trading tools. Traders apply these Fibonacci levels to help interpret market behavior and to isolate higher probability setups and market pivots.

The sequence begins with 0 and 1 and is comprised of subsequent numbers in which the nth number is the sum of the two previous numbers. The equation for finding a Fibonacci number can be written like this:

Fn = F(n-1) + F(n-2). The starting points are F1 = 1 and F2 = 1.

Each number in the Fibonacci sequence is identified with a subscript 1, 2, 3, 4 …… to indicate which term of the sequence we are talking about. Thus F16 refers to the sixteenth Fibonacci number.

The Fibonacci Sequence

0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, 4181, 6765, 10946, 17711, 28657, 46368, 75025, 121393, 196418, 317811 . . .

What is the Golden Ratio?

Related to the Fibonacci sequence is another famous mathematical term: the Golden Ratio. When a number in the Fibonacci series is divided by the number preceding it, the quotients themselves become a series that follows a fascinating pattern: 1/1 = 1,   2/1 = 2,   3/2 = 1.5,   5/3 = 1.666…,   8/5 = 1.6,   13/8 = 1.625,   21/13 = 1.61538,   34/21 = 1.619,   55/34 = 1.6176…, and   89/55 = 1.618… The first ten ratios approach the numerical value 1.618034… which is called the “Golden Ratio” or the “Golden Number,” represented by the Greek letter Phi (Φ, φ). After these first ten ratios, the quotients draw ever closer to Phi and appear to converge upon it, but never quite reach it because it is an irrational number. Phi (Φ), 1.61803 39887…, is also the number derived when you divide a line in mean and extreme ratio, then divide the whole line by the largest mean section; its inverse is phi (φ), 0.61803 39887…, obtained when dividing the extreme (smaller) portion of a line by the (larger) mean. In the image below, the ratio of the smaller part of a line (CB), to the larger part (AC) – i.e. CB/AC – is the same as the ratio of the larger part, AC, to the whole line AB. Therefore, CB/AC = AC/AB. Golden Section

Phi and phi are also known as the Golden Number and the Golden Section. The formula for Golden Ratio is: F(n) = (x^n – (1-x)^n)/(x – (1-x)) where x = (1+sqrt 5)/2 ~ 1.618 The Golden Ratio represents a fundamental mathematical structure which appears prevalent – some say ubiquitous – throughout nature, and is used as the basis for Fibonacci tools in trading.

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Master Fibonacci: The Man Who Changed Math

Did you know you can download a FREE copy of Master Fibonacci with a free membership on Fibonacci.com?

Paperback: 128 pages
Author: Shelley Allen, M.A.Ed.
Publisher: Fibonacci Inc.; 1st edition (2019)
Language: English