I made a brief video this evening to quickly run through some key charts I'm following and where I see the big picture trends.Read More

Happy New Year! We are kicking off the New Year with stocks at all-time highs, oil prices spiking on Middle East tensions, and the precious metals complex following through nicely for our November/December videos. If you haven’t had a chance to watch those videos, they offer a helpful background on the technical setup for metals...Read More

The US dollar has frustrated bulls and bears for the past several years, as it has traded inside a historically narrow range without a clear long term directional bias. However, in both the near term and long term charts, it would appear a larger, secular move is coming.Read More

In advance of tomorrow’s Fed meeting and decision on interest rates, I am closely monitoring the S&P500 priced in gold. The S&P500 has broken out to all-time highs and has successfully retested the breakout, while gold has retreated ~$100 from its highs in August, either setting up a washout to a new near term bottom...Read More

In the video below, I cover price action in some key mining stocks as well as the gold:silver ratio and the S&P:gold ratio. If gold is going to make another push to $1560-$1580, we want to see miners lead the way. Thus far, they are showing strength, which is a positive sign for bulls.Read More

In the chart above, I analyze mortgage payments as a function of interest rates and loan size. Much has been written about the increases in home price over the past two decades, as the average home in America has nearly doubled (+88%) from $165,000 to $311,000 (orange line).Read More

Fibonacci refers to the sequence of numbers made famous by thirteenth-century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, who presented and explained the solution to an algebraic math problem in his book *Liber Abaci* (1228). The Fibonacci sequence and the ratios of its sequential numbers have been discovered to be pervasive throughout nature, art, music, biology, and other disciplines, and they form the foundation for Fibonacci trading tools. Traders apply these Fibonacci levels to help interpret market behavior and to isolate higher probability setups and market pivots.

The sequence begins with 0 and 1 and is comprised of subsequent numbers in which the nth number is the sum of the two previous numbers. The equation for finding a Fibonacci number can be written like this:

Fn = F(n-1) **+** F(n-2). The starting points are F1 = 1 and F2 = 1.

Each number in the Fibonacci sequence is identified with a subscript 1, 2, 3, 4 …… to indicate which term of the sequence we are talking about. Thus F16 refers to the sixteenth Fibonacci number.

Related to the Fibonacci sequence is another famous mathematical term: the **Golden Ratio**. When a number in the Fibonacci series is divided by the number preceding it, the quotients themselves become a series that follows a fascinating pattern: 1/1 = 1, 2/1 = 2, 3/2 = **1.5**, 5/3 = **1.666**…, 8/5 = **1.6**, 13/8 = **1.625**, 21/13 = **1.61538**, 34/21 = **1.619**, 55/34 = **1.6176**…, and 89/55 = **1.618**… The first ten ratios approach the numerical value 1.618034… which is called the “Golden Ratio” or the “Golden Number,” represented by the Greek letter Phi (Φ, φ). After these first ten ratios, the quotients draw ever closer to Phi and appear to converge upon it, but never quite reach it because it is an irrational number. Phi (Φ), 1.61803 39887…, is also the number derived when you divide a line in mean and extreme ratio, then divide the whole line by the largest mean section; its inverse is phi (φ), 0.61803 39887…, obtained when dividing the extreme (smaller) portion of a line by the (larger) mean. In the image below, the ratio of the smaller part of a line (CB), to the larger part (AC) – i.e. CB/AC – is the same as the ratio of the larger part, AC, to the whole line AB. Therefore, CB/AC = AC/AB.

Phi and phi are also known as the Golden Number and the Golden Section. The formula for Golden Ratio is: F(n) = (x^n – (1-x)^n)/(x – (1-x)) where x = (1+sqrt 5)/2 ~ 1.618 The Golden Ratio represents a fundamental mathematical structure which appears prevalent – some say ubiquitous – throughout nature, and is used as the basis for Fibonacci tools in trading.

Did you know you can download a FREE copy of *Master Fibonacci* with a free membership on Fibonacci.com?

Paperback: 128 pages

Author: Shelley Allen, M.A.Ed.

Publisher: Fibonacci Inc.; 1st edition (2019)

Language: English